Month: September 2018

Interesting piece in the National Journal about how Democrats are failing to take full advantage of all their electoral advantages and may be blowing several winnable races across the country by nominating kooks and crazies.

They use as a case study the gubernatorial race in deep blue Maryland which pits GOP incumbent Larry Hogan against the former head of the NAACP Ben Jealous.

Hogan’s ability to build a broad coalition is testament to his engaging personality, record of economic growth during his tenure, and an eagerness to split from President Trump on myriad issues. But the governor’s commanding lead over Democrat Ben Jealous is also a product of the Democratic Party’s leftward lurch in Maryland, a dynamic that is replicating itself in other pivotal governors’ races across the country.

Democrats nominated Jealous, a former NAACP president, to face Hogan. He’s a dream candidate for progressives: a Bernie Sanders acolyte who advocates for single-payer health insurance, free college tuition, and the legalization of marijuana among other liberal priorities. He defeated a relatively moderate, business-friendly opponent in Prince George’s County executive Rushern Baker III, making the argument that the only way to defeat the popular Hogan was by rallying the base across a liberal state like Maryland.

So far, that strategy hasn’t panned out. Republican-aligned groups have spent millions tagging Jealous as an extremist, targeting his single-payer health care proposal. He dropped an expletive at a Washington Post reporter who asked if he was a socialist at a press conference. Public polls show his negatives unusually high for a first-time candidate, and he’s struggling to consolidate support in majority-minority Baltimore City and Prince George’s County. Jealous hasn’t raised money to match his national profile, and is running low on campaign cash, according to new campaign finance filings.

Hogan is an outlier for the GOP – a true moderate running in a heavily Democratic state. In fact, most Democrats running in blue states and blue districts are expected to win with relative ease.

And therein lies the Democrat’s problem. If they want to take control of the House and Senate as well as win more governorships, they are going to have to win in some red states and some red districts.

There are pluses and minuses this electoral season for Democrats. The pluses include running against a first term president – historically, a big advantage for the party out of the White House. Then there are more than 40 open seats, most of them in Republican districts, where the advantage of incumbency has been negated. Finally, the Republican party is in bad odor – even with many Republicans. This may tamp down GOP turnout in races where it is vital for  the base to rally behind the candidate.

But the Democrats are none too popular either. More to the point, they have nominated far left candidates in many red states and districts. While this may enthuse their base, it will cost them dearly with swing voters and disaffected Republicans. 

So the question of who controls the House next year may come down to how many voters in conservative districts will cast a ballot for a far left candidate? By definition, the liberal base vote in those districts is much smaller than the GOP base vote. They may have all the enthusiasm in the world to get out and vote, but the math is against the Democratic candidate.

Democrats could potentially pick up 30-50 seats, needing 24 to take control. But they won’t. If they manage to win the House, it will be by a far narrower margin than it could be, simply because they are running the wrong kind of candidates in many districts where a less radical Democrat would have a better chance of success.  

 

President Trump’s stellar economy nothing but hell on Democrats, and nowhere is it more hellish than in the offices of AFL-CIO union boss Richard Trumka, who for years has gotten the better of Republicans in claims to stand up for the conditions of the working man. Now Trump has come along, and things aren’t quite so easy.

Trumka was called to speak on Labor Day by Fox News’s Chris Wallace about one of his old bugaboos, NAFTA, and it’s obvious he doesn’t quite know what to say:

 

 

Did we just hear he said he WANTED more NAFTA? That trade pact he’s hated for years and often said he wanted scrapped? Suddenly, he wants NAFTA the way a free marketer does, given that the economies of Canada, Mexico and the U.S. are all “integrated?” Talk about singing soprano. Let’s see him try to sell that to the hardhats.

Then he gets even more Clinton-globalista, by saying he wants a deal that “works” for all the workers of the NAFTA area – Canadian workers, Mexican workers and American workers, not just American workers alone. As if what’s good for one in a trade pact scenario doesn’t mean some give-ups from another. Let’s see him try to sell that one to the Caterpillar-boot brigades, too.

It’s also interesting that, he ignores, (and to his credit, doesn’t lie about) President Trump’s stunning record on job creation and wages, talking about other stuff instead. “Those are good, but,” he admits. Then he broadly says that workers aren’t doing well, without bringing up specifics. It was obvious from the interview that he wanted that question to go away. Maybe that’s because he’s hearing from his own union members – who in an unrelated trade pact question in a poll put on by the AFL-CIO – cited jobs and wages as their two biggie issues.

Wallace then brings up local content and wage hikes, and how Trump’s renegotiated NAFTA pact raises those things in Mexico, just as the AFL-CIO wanted. He argues (after a softball save from Wallace about enforcement of the pact) that enforcement was, yeah, the issue. Without a scintilla of evidence, he says the whole local content and wage rise can’t be enforced. What part of ‘yes’ does he not understand?

Trumka let slip a little detail about how he was working with the USTR office for enforcement. When has any president allowed AFL-CIO that much input in the past? Again, he got all he wanted, and that leaves him up a tree, exposed as a Democrat operative in a business suit playing advocate of the working man. Success is a problem for him because it undermines Democrats.

It’s also significant that Trumka emphasized a lot that he was non-partisan, objective, a caller of “balls and strikes,” not a Democratic Party shill. Obviously, he’s a bit scared of his union members and all the good stuff President Trump has brought for them.

Which highlights what is really going on here: With Trump giving workers what they want, Trumka is increasingly irrelevant. That explains his sudden nice-guy persona, and his strangely shifting positions on NAFTA. For him, the game was never about the working man, it was about advancing the aims of the left. Now he’s in the uncomfortable position of being a successful union leader who got his workers the jobs and wage hikes they wanted, yet he can’t capitalize on it. His real game has always been getting votes for Democrats and everyone now knows it.

Trump is hell for this union boss, and Trumka’s floundering shows it.

 

Image credit: Linh Do, via Flickr // CC BY-SA 2.0

Poor Gwen Graham, daughter of legendary Florida Governor and Senator Bob Graham, who spent more than a quarter of a century in those two statewide elective offices.  She desperately wants a government job, but not just any government job.  In fact, she had one.  She once was the House of Representative District Two Congresswoman for two years.  From all appearances, she did a competent job.  That was until the Florida Legislature gerrymandered her out of it.  The district was divided into such a way that the newly created districts mostly favored Republican voters.  Gwen didn’t have a chance and didn’t run for any of them.  Poor Gwen. 

She quietly went back into private life, until she woke up one day and decided to become governor.  She ran hard and had the political winds to her back.  She had a record to run on, a strong base of support, money, a campaign apparatus still in place and a legendary last name. That was until the lowly upstart Mayor of Tallahassee kept her from it.  

Mayor Andrew Gillum had trailed throughout the primary season.  In fact, Mayor Gillum trailed a distant fourth place and was in no shape to overcome two millionaires and a billionaire ahead of him.  It wasn’t until the final election night that Mayor Gillum did the impossible.  He snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.  It was a glorious evening for him and his supporters.  Poor Tallahassee.

The people of Tallahassee think they belong to an underappreciated quiet metropolis of sorts that belongs on the main stage.  The Tallahassee underbelly is many Tallahasseans are liberals and believe in a benevolent dictator-style leadership.  They despise rough and rumble (small d) democratic politics where people can say what they think and do what they please.  No, instead, the city succeeds in perpetuating group think by using an unlimited supply of taxpayer cash for television commercials reminding people to pick up their pets’ poop, or to recycle.  Forget about any discussion of the effectiveness of these programs — I can’t count how many “friends” I have lost because I voted for Trump.  This town is bent on accepting whatever mantra is spouted from the DNC or any other liberal organization.

Old and New State Capitol in Tallahassee (Wikimedia Commons)

However, this town is home to Mayor Gillum.  Both of which are unfortunately under FBI investigation.  He is being investigated for his alleged acceptance of sporting tickets, plane trips, junkets in New York City and, unbelievably, how his close aide landed a nicely taxpayer subsidized contract for prime commercial real estate in a newly developed section of downtown.   The City of the Tallahassee is being investigated for its Community Redevelopment Authority (CRA).  It is a nice name with a nice mission description, but in reality, it is nothing more than a slush fund for city officials to award taxpayer subsidized contracts to friends, family and contributors, usually three in one.  The timing could not be worse for Mayor Gillum or Tallahassee.

Mayor Gillum is exactly the kind of governor this city wants.  He is comfortable with handing out political favors and jobs and he  seems to see himself as a kind of political lord with a serfdom to manage.    He would easily move across the street from City Hall into the Governor’s Office.  He would appoint those most loyal to him and will expect favors in return.  This is how things used to be run in Tallahassee until Republicans showed up and won elections. 

The primary election of Mayor Gillum will shine a spotlight so intense on this town, and I hope that Tallahassee will melt in the glare.  It has too many political skeletons in its closet and will gladly accept a Gillum defeat in November.  More than anything else, Tallahassee does not want a dose of reality to force it to change its ways.  Like most other liberals I know of, they like to live in a world of make believe.  Poor Tallahassee.