Month: April 2020

Burglaries and thefts have been spiking in major cities across America, as police have been told to curtail enforcement activities during the coronavirus lockdown, and prisons across the country let low-level offenders out early to prevent outbreaks in overcrowded facilities.

In Seattle, burglary cases in the city’s west precinct were up 87% over the preceding 28 days, according to the Seattle PD’s internal crime database, which includes downtown Seattle. The spike coincided with a county policy prohibiting most misdemeanor jail bookings.

"This is a number we’re going to work very hard to reverse in the coming weeks," SPD spokesman Sgt. Sean Witcomb told the "Jason Rantz Show" on KTTH.

In New York City, burglaries of commercial establishments are up 75% between March 12, when a state of emergency was declared by Mayor Bill de Blasio, and March 31. 254 burglaries of businesses were recorded vs. 145 for the same period last year, according to the Wall Street Journal.

"We knew with the closing of many stores that we could see an increase and, unfortunately, we are," said NYPD Chief of Crime Control Strategies Michael LiPetri.

Last week, masked thieves made off with $1.3 million in jewelry from a Bronx jewelry store by entering an adjacent business, drilling a hole in the wall, and entering through a closet.

Also contributing to the spike in crime is New York’s new no-bail law which went into effect on January 1st. The new law prohibits pretrial detention for most misdemeanors as well as certain nonviolent felonies. 

On the bright side, while commercial burglaries have increased during the pandemic – rapes, murders and assaults have fallen approximately 20% in New York vs. the same period in 2019 – dropping from 4,670 to 3,740 a year earlier.

In Houston, burglaries have risen nearly 20%, while aggravated assaults of spiked by 19.3%. Domestic violence incidents have risen six percent, according to KTRK. The increases come as Harris County readies a list of nonviolent inmates for release amid the pandemic.

Many businesses throughout Harris County have been closed for the past two weeks, during which we have seen an 18.9 percent increase in burglary of businesses.

Let’s hope people who burglarize vehicles, resideces, and buildings aren’t released in large numbers.

— Chief Art Acevedo (@ArtAcevedo) March 31, 2020

In the hours after Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo confirmed the intention to release certain inmates from a "ticking time bomb" situation, Acevedo, whose police department is the largest user of the jail, revealed he had not discussed the plan with county leadership.

"While I can’t speak to a plan I have not seen or been consulted on, my position on release is well documented on my Twitter feed and in previous media interviews," the chief tweeted. "Let’s hope people who burglarize vehicles, residences and buildings aren’t released in large numbers." –KTRK

San Francisco, meanwhile has seen a slight increase in motor vehicle theft and robbery, though assaults, burglaries and larceny has dropped over between January 1st and April 5th vs. the same period in 2019 according to the city’s crime dashboard. That said, domestic violence incidents are on the rise, and restaurants have been targeted by vandals and break-in attempts despite covering their windows and doors with plywood, according to SF Eater.

We wonder what these cities will look like in another four months?

Infamous for his painful but ultimately profitable "big short" bet against mortgage-backed securities during the 2008 financial crisis, Michael Burry, the doctor-turned-hedge-fund-manager has been on a multi-day Twitter rant claiming that the lockdowns intended to contain the COVID-19 pandemic are worse than the disease itself.

Echoing the thoughts of many, Burry opined in a series of tweets over the past two weeks that the government-enforced lockdowns and business shutdowns across America may trigger one of the country’s deepest-ever economic contractions, and further still, are not necessary to contain the epidemic (on March 22nd).

COVID-19 policy cannot be settled by CYA politicians career ID docs. Too much hammer/nail and too little common sense. 

POTUS must reflect the interests of the working class and small business here – the economy cannot crash 30% to save the 0.2%.

Set America Free!

If COVID-19 testing were universal, the fatality rate would be less than 0.2%.

This is no justication for sweeping government policies, lacking any and all nuance, that destroy the lives, jobs, and businesses of the other 99.8%.

Furthermore, Burry – who earned his M.D. at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine – has also dared to say that some controversial treatments for COVID-19, such as the malaria drug hydroxycloroquine, should be made more widely available (on March 24).

Prudent plan:

1) Standardize on chloroquine and azithromycin -cheap and available

2) Sick and elderly voluntarily shelter in place. 

3) Americans lead their normal lives with extra hand washing and special care if around elderly.

Saving the economy means life, not murder.

Additionally, in an email to Bloomberg News, Burry wrote that "universal stay-at-home is the most devastating economic force in modern history… And it is man-made. It very suddenly reverses the gains of underprivileged groups, kills and creates drug addicts, beats and terrorizes women and children in violent now-jobless households, and more. It bleeds deep anguish and suicide."

Additionally, as Bloomberg’s Reed Stevenson reports, Burry responded to questions via email to offer more thoughts on the pandemic and the response to the outbreak…

How the Pandemic Happened

“This is a new form of coronavirus that emanated from a country, China, that unfortunately covered it up. That was the original sin. It transmits very easily, and within the first month it was likely all over the world. Very poor testing infrastructure created an information vacuum as cases ramped, ventilator shortages were projected. Politicians panicked and media filled the space with their own ignorance and greed. It was a toxic mix that led to the shutdown of the U.S., and hence much of the world economy.”

“In hindsight, each country should have immediately ramped up rapid field testing of at-risk groups. But as I understand it, the CDC was tasked with some of this, and botched it, and other departments were no better. The bureaucracy failed in a good number of countries. Turf wars and incompetence has ruled the day. So the political cover for that failure on the part of the technocrats and politicians is a very harsh stay-at-home policy.”

The U.S. Policy Response

“If there was ever a time for the government to stimulate with fiscal and monetary policy, it is now. Unfortunately, the U.S. has been adding $3 for every $1 of new GDP over a very long time, and interest rates were already near zero. Still, nothing is more important now that loans to small and mid-sized businesses, and the U.S. Treasury, backed by the Fed, is providing that liquidity, which is vital.”

Potential Treatments

“It’s pretty clear that hydrochloroquine is doing something good for many Covid-19 patients. The standard in medicine is a placebo-controlled double-blind study. But there is no time for that. The technocrats at the top are getting this wrong. Do the studies, make the vaccines, but allow doctors to have what they feel is working now. Don’t take tools or drugs out of the treating doctors’ hands. Trump should use the Defense Production Act more liberally in this area.”

“A more nuanced approach would be for at risk groups — the obese, old and already-sick — to shelter in place, to execute widespread mandatory testing, and to ID and track as necessary while allowing society to function. Again, Trump should get the massive contract manufacturers like Flextronics to make testing machines.”

Getting Back to Normal

“I would lift stay-at-home orders except for known risk groups. We already know certain conditions that are predictive of severe disease. Especially since young healthy lungs tend to be resistant, I would let the virus circulate in the population that is not likely to get severe disease from it. This is the only path that comes close to balancing the needs of all groups. Vaccines are not coming anytime soon, so natural immunity is the only way out for now. Every day, every week in the current situation is ruining innumerable lives in a criminally unjust manner.”

“When it comes to vaccines, coronaviruses are not known for imparting enduring immunity, and this will be one big challenge. It seems the genetic code is relatively conserved, and this will help the development of the vaccine. But we’re still looking at the end of the year. In the meantime, the world is an innovative place, and I expect many effective treatments — both new and repurposed — shortly. The question then will be regulation, expense and availability.”

“Medically, the new normal will be the old normal. As long as innovation continues, medicine will conquer everything in our way.”

Japan’s Response

“I believe Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is trying his best to manage through the situation without shuttering the economy. He sees what it has done to the U.S., and would rather not force a shut in, but instead asks for common sense. Japan has certain features — such as a largely lawful and well-educated society — that make this more possible. As do Taiwan, Singapore, Korea.”

Business Recovery

“Economically speaking, we have to realize the policy-driven demand shock will be resolved by 2021. But Japan and the U.S. are putting more than 20% of the GDP into new fiscal stimulus, and easy money will be the rule. Those things will all bring stock and debt markets back.”

“Countries will also look to bring supply chains home, and many employees will need retraining with higher cost. When we start working and playing again, inflation may be in store. The other big point is that consumers have learned new behaviors, which will drive business churn.”

Finally, on the investment side, Burry told Bloomberg News last month that he placed a “significant bearish market bet that is working out for now,” without providing details except to say it was a trade of a “good size” against indexes. He said the pandemic could unwind the passive investment boom, which he has compared to purchases of collateralized debt obligations that fueled the pre-2008 mortgage bubble.