The trouble with climate models is that their output is not a plausible representation of the climate of the Earth. The in words of the distinguished climate scientist Kevin Trenberth, no climate skeptic: “…none of the climate states in the models corresponds even remotely to the current observed climate.”
The climate models are very large black boxes. They are far too complicated to make sense of what is going on. The way the models are used to create predictions or projections of future climate is determined by political, not scientific considerations. The results of the many models are simply averaged together to create an ensemble of climate models that is used to make the doomsday predictions. Instead of using the best model to make predictions, all the models are used as if every model is as good as every other model.
The reason for this is political. If a “best” model were selected, the scientifically correct approach, that would be breaking the rice bowl of all the losing modeling groups. That would lead to a loss of unity among the many modeling groups supping at the various government troughs. People mutually looting the government treasury stick together. If they fight with each other, they all lose.
The 468 page report released by the USGCRP is filled with speculative claims presented as if they are established science. The authors use “expert Judgement” to support their conclusions. The experts have an obvious financial and emotional stake in global warming doomsday scenarios. If the global warming doomsday is shown to be imaginary, the experts will lose their financial support and in many cases their jobs.
The climate of the last 118 years is a clear demonstration of the fallacy of using climate models to predict the future climate. Carbon dioxide, according the theories supported by the IPCC and the USGCRP, had insignificant influence on climate prior to 1975. Yet, from 1910 to 1940 the Earth warmed strongly, not as a response to CO2. What caused that early century warming? No one knows. It is a mystery to this day. The only thing we know for sure is that it was not caused by CO2.
From 1975 to 2000, a very similar strong warming took place. According to the apostilles of global warming, that late century warming was caused exclusively by CO2. How do they know that the late century warming was not caused by the same mysterious force that caused the early century warming? They don’t, but they claim it because it is politically convenient. From 2000 to the present there has been little global warming, probably none if the influence of tropical El Nino events is discounted.
There are many ways to explain anything that happens in the climate. The lack of warming in the 21st century is often explained by claiming that heat is hiding in the ocean. Conveniently, there are no good measurements of heat hiding in the ocean.
The early versus late century warming is only one example of many contradictions in global warming theory. The contradictions and holes in the theory are ignored and swept under the rug. Global warming theory is politically motivated science, not real science. Scientists are behaving like other special interests dependent on government funding. They make up doomsday theories supported by a cloud of incomprehensible scientific jargon.
The many scientists that dispute this junk science are ruthlessly attacked and marginalized. There is an extensive literature written by global warming skeptics, many of whom are credentialed scientists. This body of literature is ignored rather than refuted. Rather than engage the skeptics in honest debate, the doomsday promoters accuse them of being paid off by oil companies.
Some of the things other than CO2 and greenhouse gases that can affect climate are the overturning circulation of the oceans, the magnetic field of the sun, the periodic cycles of ocean temperature, and chaotic variation. These other forces affecting climate are invoked only when they are convenient for explaining failures of the CO2 theory. In addition, there may be unknown forces, yet to be discovered.
The brazenness of the fake science is often shocking. Supposedly many Pacific islands are going to be flooded by sea level rise to be caused by global warming. These islands survived 400 feet of sea level rise at the end of the ice age 10,000 years ago, a much faster sea level rise than is currently taking place. They survived because they are coral islands that grow upward as the sea level rises. This is not a secret, but the advocates of global warming terror use these islands as an example of horrible things that will be caused by global warming. One wonders why the New York Times does not expose this brazen fraud.
Junk science and fake science are not limited to global warming. They are invading many important areas of science. For example, the danger of low level radiation has been exaggerated by persistent use of a model not supported by data. The supposed danger of PM2.5 or small particles, smaller than 2.5 microns, that are suspended in the air, has been exaggerated without good evidence. The danger of DDT was exaggerated with the result that millions of children were killed by malaria. In each case there are special interests that profit from spreading junk science. Stories predicting disaster sell and the science establishment is selling.
The global warming scare is used to provide ideological support for wind and solar energy. Billions of dollars have been wasted on useless wind and solar energy. My book, Dumb Energy, explains in detail why this so-called renewable energy is economically useless. Wind and solar are not even effective for reducing CO2 emissions.
The corruption of science has its roots in the political funding of science by the federal government. Somehow we have to make it less profitable for scientists to make up science. Peer review is a joke and doesn’t work. Certainly it would help if the public and the media were skeptical about any scientific theory that predicts a disaster unless we do what the scientists and their allies want us to do.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has released its latest doomsday climate report. This organization, part of the federal government, has been in business for a long time, releasing nonsense reports concerning the supposed global warming threat. I attended meetings of the federal advisory committee associated with the program in 2011 and wrote an article about that particular circus. Federal advisory committees are supposed to be committees of experts with a diversity of viewpoints. The committee in 2011 consisted of supposed experts with only one point of view, that we are threatened by doomsday global warming.
The USGCRP suffers from a lack of imagination. Its reports imitate the style and approach of the United Nations International Panel On Climate Change (IPCC). The USGCRP uses the IPCC as a trusted source. The problem is that the IPCC is not to be trusted. One idea broached at the 2011 meeting is present in the 2018 report. In 2011 the activists wrestled with the problem that nobody was paying much attention to their reports. They decided that there should be customized reports for different parts of the U.S. The idea was that people would be more concerned if there were specific doomsday predictions for their neighborhood. The country was divided into regions as shown in the map below. Doomsday forecasts for the regions are taken from climate models, sometimes supplemented by a procedure known as downscaling.
Source: US Global Chnage Research Report
The trouble with climate models is that their output is not a plausible representation of the climate of the Earth. The in words of the distinguished climate scientist Kevin Trenberth, no climate skeptic: “…none of the climate states in the models corresponds even remotely to the current observed climate.”
The climate models are very large black boxes. They are far too complicated to make sense of what is going on. The way the models are used to create predictions or projections of future climate is determined by political, not scientific considerations. The results of the many models are simply averaged together to create an ensemble of climate models that is used to make the doomsday predictions. Instead of using the best model to make predictions, all the models are used as if every model is as good as every other model.
The reason for this is political. If a “best” model were selected, the scientifically correct approach, that would be breaking the rice bowl of all the losing modeling groups. That would lead to a loss of unity among the many modeling groups supping at the various government troughs. People mutually looting the government treasury stick together. If they fight with each other, they all lose.
The 468 page report released by the USGCRP is filled with speculative claims presented as if they are established science. The authors use “expert Judgement” to support their conclusions. The experts have an obvious financial and emotional stake in global warming doomsday scenarios. If the global warming doomsday is shown to be imaginary, the experts will lose their financial support and in many cases their jobs.
The climate of the last 118 years is a clear demonstration of the fallacy of using climate models to predict the future climate. Carbon dioxide, according the theories supported by the IPCC and the USGCRP, had insignificant influence on climate prior to 1975. Yet, from 1910 to 1940 the Earth warmed strongly, not as a response to CO2. What caused that early century warming? No one knows. It is a mystery to this day. The only thing we know for sure is that it was not caused by CO2.
From 1975 to 2000, a very similar strong warming took place. According to the apostilles of global warming, that late century warming was caused exclusively by CO2. How do they know that the late century warming was not caused by the same mysterious force that caused the early century warming? They don’t, but they claim it because it is politically convenient. From 2000 to the present there has been little global warming, probably none if the influence of tropical El Nino events is discounted.
There are many ways to explain anything that happens in the climate. The lack of warming in the 21st century is often explained by claiming that heat is hiding in the ocean. Conveniently, there are no good measurements of heat hiding in the ocean.
The early versus late century warming is only one example of many contradictions in global warming theory. The contradictions and holes in the theory are ignored and swept under the rug. Global warming theory is politically motivated science, not real science. Scientists are behaving like other special interests dependent on government funding. They make up doomsday theories supported by a cloud of incomprehensible scientific jargon.
The many scientists that dispute this junk science are ruthlessly attacked and marginalized. There is an extensive literature written by global warming skeptics, many of whom are credentialed scientists. This body of literature is ignored rather than refuted. Rather than engage the skeptics in honest debate, the doomsday promoters accuse them of being paid off by oil companies.
Some of the things other than CO2 and greenhouse gases that can affect climate are the overturning circulation of the oceans, the magnetic field of the sun, the periodic cycles of ocean temperature, and chaotic variation. These other forces affecting climate are invoked only when they are convenient for explaining failures of the CO2 theory. In addition, there may be unknown forces, yet to be discovered.
The brazenness of the fake science is often shocking. Supposedly many Pacific islands are going to be flooded by sea level rise to be caused by global warming. These islands survived 400 feet of sea level rise at the end of the ice age 10,000 years ago, a much faster sea level rise than is currently taking place. They survived because they are coral islands that grow upward as the sea level rises. This is not a secret, but the advocates of global warming terror use these islands as an example of horrible things that will be caused by global warming. One wonders why the New York Times does not expose this brazen fraud.
Junk science and fake science are not limited to global warming. They are invading many important areas of science. For example, the danger of low level radiation has been exaggerated by persistent use of a model not supported by data. The supposed danger of PM2.5 or small particles, smaller than 2.5 microns, that are suspended in the air, has been exaggerated without good evidence. The danger of DDT was exaggerated with the result that millions of children were killed by malaria. In each case there are special interests that profit from spreading junk science. Stories predicting disaster sell and the science establishment is selling.
The global warming scare is used to provide ideological support for wind and solar energy. Billions of dollars have been wasted on useless wind and solar energy. My book, Dumb Energy, explains in detail why this so-called renewable energy is economically useless. Wind and solar are not even effective for reducing CO2 emissions.
The corruption of science has its roots in the political funding of science by the federal government. Somehow we have to make it less profitable for scientists to make up science. Peer review is a joke and doesn’t work. Certainly it would help if the public and the media were skeptical about any scientific theory that predicts a disaster unless we do what the scientists and their allies want us to do.
